Selections of Gartner SYMPOSIUM ITxpo2002 - IT investment and centralization has held from October 23rd. On the 23rd of opening day, those where first it stands in the platform of keynote presentation section (Bob Hayward) are the person. Hayward entitled “directivity and scenario of IT industry,” IT industry near future estimate talked evolution of technical trend to the axis.
As for hayward said, “Evolution of IT technology, in the future 10 years it probably is effective, but after that it exceeds Moore's law”, that it declared. The field which becomes the object, “The super computer, fusion / CTI of grid computing, the data and sound, four of security”. When these four fields will be the field which runs the leading edge in present IT technology, paradigm shift of IT technology trend will be borne in the future, it is regarded. However, “at present time niche it is field still, the margin of further research and development is left”, that hayward points out.
For example, when research and development of the quantum computing which belongs to the category of the super computer reaches to practical level, the people mean to look at the world of completely new computing. “History of the IT technology which continues evolution in the world of binary method of on and off (the shoes to obtain) probably is from root. The operation time of quantum computing terminals is a possibility of reaching to also 10,000 times that of the NEC super computer which presently is worldwide highest speed”, that hayward calls.
In addition, quantum computing is related even with category of security. Although DES code of 128 bits is deciphered, the time when it catches using the aforementioned NEC super computer, assumes that approximately 1 months it is required. But, with appearance of quantum computing, as for the common sense the fear of being reversed arose. As for the American method executive organ such as FBI, CIA and NSA you say that you make effort for development of the cryptographic technology which opposes to especially quantum computing.
How abouts technology such as wireless technology and input/output interface
“From now in 2012 of 10 years later, the inside of the world probably has become computing environment”, that, hayward says. Presently, IEEE802.11x, BlueTooth, Zigbee and Ultra Wide Band (UWB) is listed on core of wireless technology. The utilization product of Zigbee networks home appliance product such as electric light. UWB with the technology which derives from the American military research, had been devised already in 1950 age. It is low, frequency, there is the restriction, short range communication, but the permeability which ignores the barrier with feature, for example show power probably will be with connection of the AV product.
In regard to the input/output device, hayward explained making the movie minority report which is in the midst of screening in the United States for example, “In the movie, Tom Cruise operated the computer. This is possibility of one interface. Unrealizable you cannot declare. In Israel, projecting to plane surface, you use there is an enterprise which developed the “virtual keyboard”. Also research of speech recognition technology is advanced”, that it did, these input devices mainly Japan suggested the possibility of keeping spreading on the center in 2012. Isn't the fact that the European-American keyboard culture is long, breaks away from the keyboard “to be difficult in comparison with Japan perhaps?”, that you feel concern.
As for technical trend evolution of the output device, appearance of organic radiation display and the technology which bakes CPU and the like to the surface of the glass to which sharp applies patent, furthermore development of the programming possible electronic paper which Xerox tackles, reaches the point where big effect is produced on the especially shopping market. “The output device which does not question the place will commercialize, when it spreads, in Europe and America which is catalog society the market of net shopping furthermore probably will spread”, that hayward estimates.
In addition, if as for hayward as for appearance of artificial intelligence elucidation of brain of the human is not done, that it is impossible, explanation and CRM, SCM and BI (business intelligence) with slowness and the like of the walking of evolution of the data mining-related technology which was said, present condition of the IT which exists and in the future of 10 years later you talked the image to length and breadth mutual loan.
0 comments:
Post a Comment